Beyond Quantity Validation: Developing a BIM-Based Project Quantity Risk Index (PQRI) for Risk-Informed Construction Project Control

Abstract

The use of Building Information Modeling (BIM) in quantification has improved the efficiency and accuracy of estimation within construction projects. BIM quantity methods have remained limited to differences and accuracy measurements, without providing adequate support for project control decisions. In project management, quantity differences are effective only when they are translated into managerial, technical, or operational effects that may affect project performance. The Project Quantity Risk Index (PQRI) was proposed as a risk-based framework for transforming BIM quantification results into decision-support information. The Explanatory Risk Index (ERI), Managerial Impact (MI), and other indicators have been combined into a composite index to prioritize quantity-related risks. The framework was applied to a BIM-supported building project comprising 48 structural and finished elements. Descriptive statistics, correlation, and sensitivity analysis were used to examine the model's behavior and robustness. The results showed an average PQRI value of 0.379, indicating a moderate risk level. Internal Paint, Decorative Cladding, and Internal Wall Plaster were identified as the highest-risk elements. Correlation results indicated that explanatory and managerial factors were more strongly associated with PQRI than deviation measures alone. Overall, the proposed framework shifts BIM quantity validation from numerical comparisons toward risk-informed managerial prioritization and project control support